Early warning and atrocity prevention

The information below showcases the latest research and assessments on the risks of atrocity crimes within the Asia Pacific. These reports take the form of Risk Assessments and summaries from the Regional Outlooks.

Risk Assessments

The Centre's Risk Assessments are in depth reports that use the Framework of Analysis for Mass Atrocity Crimes, a tool developed by the UN Special Advisors on the Prevention of Genocide and R2P. The Framework of Analysis is comprised of 14 Risk Factors of atrocity crimes which are each subsquently comprised of an accompanying set of Indicators. Risk Factors are divided into two different groups. Common Risk Factors can apply to the potential risk of any atrocity crime, while Specific Risk Factors are each associated with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity (risks of ethnic cleansing are integrated into those of the other atrocity crimes). 

The more Risk Factors and their associated Indicators are present, the greater the risk of atrocity crimes being committed. However, not all Risk Factors need to be present to represent a significant risk. Furthermore, Risk Factors and Indicators are not ranked by importance and should be considered in a broader context, taking into account a country's social, political, historical and cultural idiosyncrasies.

September  2018: Risk Assessment Series Volume 7: The Philippines 

Download the PDF (9.4 MB).

September  2018: Risk Assessment Series Volume 6: Sri Lanka

Download the PDF (1.8 MB).

July 2018: Risk Assessment Series Volume 5: Cambodia

Download the PDF (14.8MB).

December 2017: Risk Assessment Series Volume 4: Myanmar

Download the PDF (1.4MB).

June 2017: Risk Assessment Series Volume 3: Lao People's Democratic Republic

Download the PDF (2.5MB).

December 2016: Risk Assessment Series Volume 2: Democratic People's Republic of Korea 

Download the PDF (2.2MB).

November 2016: Risk Assessment Series Volume 1: Timor-Leste

Download the PDF (2.5MB).

Regional Outlooks

Sorted by year, the Regional Outlook provides an up-to-date overview of the critical issues relating to the implementation of R2P within the Asia Pacific region. Like the Risk Assessments, the Outlook utilises the Framework of Analysis for Mass Atrocity Crimes developed by the UN to review efforts made in addressing risks and identifying potential future triggers. It also provides a number of policy recommendations to better facilitate capacity building efforts of policy makers from the local to the international level. 

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 10 November 2018 (PDF,354).

The latest issue of the Regional Outlook contains up-to-date information and recommendations as of November 2018. Summaries of the individual countries in the Outlook can also be accessed:

  • Myanmar (PDF, );
  • The Philippines (PDF, );
  • DPRK (PDF, );
  • Indonesia (PDF, );
  • Cambodia (PDF, );
  • Thailand (PDF, );
  • Papua New Guinea (PDF, ).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 9 August 2018 (PDF, 671KB).

The latest issue of the Regional Outlook contains up-to-date information and recommendations as of August 2018. Summaries of the individual countries in the Outlook can also be accessed:

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 8 May 2018 (PDF, 596KB).

This issue of the Regional Outlook contains up-to-date information on the entire region, as of May 2018. Alternatively, sections of the Outlook can be accessed according to individual countries: