Atrocity Risk Analysis and Early Warning

The Asia Pacific Snapshot is a bi monthly publication that provides a brief overview of atrocity risks across the region and notes key recent or projected  future developments that will likely impact on atrocity risk.   

The Centre's Country Studies ( formerly Risk Assessments)  provide a  brief historial overview alongside an update on the current country situation. It uses the "lens" of the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes, a tool developed by the UN Special Advisors on the Prevention of Genocide and R2P and other includes other indictors  such as climate, gender and hatespeech and technology. The Strategies for Prevention or "recommendations"  are based on the Framework For Action. 

More general information about countries in the Asia Pacific can be found on the R2P in the Asia Pacific page. This includes other publications and work the Centre conducts in the region, as well as assessments of each country's overall adherence to the R2P norm.

The Asia Pacific Snapshot is a bi monthly publication that provides a brief overview of atrocity risks across the region and notes key recent or projected  future developments that will likely impact on atrocity risk.   

Like the Risk Assessments, the Asia Pacifc Snapshot utilises the Framework of Analysis for Mass Atrocity Crimes developed by the UN to review efforts made in addressing risks and identifying potential future triggers. 

In mid 2024 the Asia Pacific Snapshot replaced the Regional Outlooks that  also provided an overview of the critical issues relating to the implementation of R2P within the Asia Pacific region.

Asia Pacific Snapshot December 2024  (PDF, 596.9 KB)

Asia Pacific Snapshot November 2024  (PDF, 588.4 KB)

Asia Pacific Snapshot August 2024 (PDF, 7.2 MB)

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook February 2024 (PDF, 709KB). 

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook November 2023 (PDF, 980KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook August 2023 (PDF, 955KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook May 2023 (PDF, 915KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook February 2023 (PDF, 922KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 23 December 2022 (PDF, 911KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 22 August 2022 (PDF, 1.1MB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 21 April 2022 (PDF, 1.2MB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 20 December 2021 (PDF, 747KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 19 October 2021 (PDF, 1.4MB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 18 June 2021 (PDF, 642KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 17 February 2021 (PDF, 635KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 16 November 2020 (PDF, 1.02MB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 15 June 2020 (PDF, 521KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 14 February 2020 (PDF, 829KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 13 October 2019 (PDF, 481KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 12 June 2019 (PDF, 275 KB).

The Persecution of the Uighurs and Potential Crimes Against Humanity in China (PDF, 339KB). A joint brief by APR2P and the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect.

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 11 April 2019 (PDF, 1.4MB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 10 November 2018 (PDF,354).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 9 August 2018 (PDF, 671KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 8 May 2018 (PDF, 596KB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 7 December 2017 (PDF, 1.2MB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 6 July 2017 (PDF, 1.3MB).

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook Issue 5 April 2017 (PDF, 1.7MB).

 

 

The Centre's Country Studies ( formerly Risk Assessments)  provide a  brief historial overview alongside an update on the current  situation. It uses the "lens" of the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes, a tool developed by the UN Special Advisors on the Prevention of Genocide and R2P and other includes other  indictors  such as climate , gender and hatespeech and technology. The  Strategies  for Prevention or "recommendations"  are based on the Framework For Action. 

The Framework of Analysis is comprised of 14 Risk Factors of atrocity crimes which are each subsquently comprised of an accompanying set of Indicators. Risk Factors are divided into two different groups. Common Risk Factors can apply to the potential risk of any atrocity crime, while Specific Risk Factors are each associated with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity (risks of ethnic cleansing are integrated into those of the other atrocity crimes). 

The more Risk Factors and their associated Indicators are present, the greater the risk of atrocity crimes being committed. However, not all Risk Factors need to be present to represent a significant risk. Furthermore, Risk Factors and Indicators are not ranked by importance and should be considered in a broader context, taking into account a country's social, political, historical and cultural idiosyncrasies.

Februrary 2024: Risk Assessment Series: Vanuatu   Download the PDF (4.1 MB).

March 2024: Risk Assessment Series: Myanmar  Download the pdf (1.5 MB)

March 2024: Risk Assessment Series: Thailand Download the PDF ( 1.3 MB)

March 2024: Risk Assessment Series: Vietnam  Download the PDF (1.8 MB)

July 2023: Risk Assessment Series: New Caledonia Download the PDF (1.3MB).

April 2023: Risk Assessment Series: Bangladesh Download the PDF (1.2MB).

March 2023: Risk Assessment Series: Myanmar Download the PDF (1.4MB).

March 2023: Risk Assessment Series: Papua New Guinea Download the PDF (993KB).

January 2023: Risk Assessment Series: Sri Lanka Download the PDF (1.2MB).

November 2022: Risk Assessment Series Volume 22: Fiji Dowload the PDF (PDF, 2.2MB).

May 2022: Risk Assessment Series Volume 21: Cambodia Download the PDF (PDF, 1.0MB).

April 2022: Risk Assessment Series Volume 20: The Philippines Download the PDF (PDF, 1.9MB).

March 2022: Risk Assessment Series Volume 19: Myanmar Download the PDF (PDF, 1.3MB).

November 2021: Risk Assessment Series Volume 18: Hong Kong Download the PDF (PDF, 1.6MB).

April 2021: Risk Assessment Series Volume 17: Democratic People's Republic of Korea Download the PDF (PDF, 1.4MB).

April 2021: Risk Assessment Series Volume 16: Solomon Islands Download the PDF (PDF, 1.3MB). 

March 2021: Risk Assessment Series Volume 15: Lao People's Democratic Republic Download the PDF (PDF, 4.0MB).

April 2020: Risk Assessment Series Volume 14: Thailand Download the PDF (1.1 MB).

February 2020: Risk Assessment Series Volume 13: Vanuatu Download the PDF (13.6 MB).